Beyond Values: Why Decarbonization is Now a Matter of Strategic Strength

Fragmented geopolitics, volatile energy systems, and diminishing tolerance for business models that fail to translate into operational reality mean that 2026 is shaping up as a stress test for the real economy. Rather than sidelining sustainable transport, these constraints make it unavoidable. The next wave of winners will be those turning decarbonisation into measurable performance: cost, uptime, compliance, and resilience.-

“Addressing transport and energy decarbonation means being at the core of today’s most critical challenges.” - Yann Marteil, Managing Partner at Shift4Good

In the following part, we’ll zoom on these macro shifts and how they are reshaping VC dynamics.

The macro forces shaping transport in 2026

Sovereignty: geopolitics turns supply chains and industry into strategy

In 2026, the defining macro shift is sovereignty. One axis is sovereignty over materials, energy, and key solutions: reducing dependency on critical inputs and on external suppliers for strategic technologies. A second axis is sovereignty over economic prosperity: reindustrialisation, jobs, and cost-of-living pressure push governments to protect domestic capacity and resilience. A third axis is sovereignty over frontiers and strategic locations: defence and security concerns shape priorities around corridors, ports, and critical infrastructure.

Mobility is impacted downstream because it sits on top of these pressures: OEM sourcing and production footprints, battery and semiconductor access, trade measures, compliance rules, and energy availability all become first-order drivers of what can scale, where, and at what cost.

“We’re moving into a world of overpressure which means intensified rivalry is pushing sovereignty and resilience to the forefront, accelerating localisation and regionalisation.” — Matthieu de Chanville, Managing Partner at Shift4Good

AI transformation: the next productivity wave moves from software to physical systems

The prior “digitalisation wave” has matured; the next wave is AI embedded first into workflows, and now increasingly into the physical world. In mobility and industry, value comes from measurable improvements in throughput, uptime, safety, and cost across operations.

Mobility actors are structurally well positioned because capabilities developed for automated vehicles (perception, computer vision, safety thinking, edge constraints, systems integration) transfer directly into robotics and physical AI deployments.

“Mobility actors are well positioned for physical AI integration, having built directly transferable capabilities through their work on automated vehicles.” — Matthieu de Chanville, Managing Partner at Shift4Good

Sustainability: redefined by AI and sovereignty

Sovereignty and AI can create tension with sustainability: regionalisation can duplicate capacity and slow standardisation; AI and electrification raise electricity demand and expose grid bottlenecks; political attention can swing toward security and competitiveness. Add to that the end of the “green premium”: sustainability is no longer a bonus you pay extra for, it has to show up through cost, reliability, and resilience. These forces can put sustainability under pressure in the short term.

But those same dynamics also reinforce it as a non-optional requirement. Energy transition is increasingly tied to sovereignty and resilience (reducing dependence, limiting exposure to shocks), climate incidents keep disrupting regions, and efficiency under constrained resources becomes a competitive advantage. AI sits on both sides: it increases energy demand, but it can also be a facilitator for greener outcomes through optimisation, smarter energy management, and better operational control.

This means that the next “sovereignty-grade” technologies will need to be decarbonised by design, because resilience without climate alignment just swaps one vulnerability for another. This is why transport and energy sustainability is not a niche theme in 2026, it is at the heart of innovation.

“Sustainability is an underlying force which is not going away. The only question is in what form is this force exerting its influence.” — Thierry de Panafieu, Managing Partner at Shift4Good

How the VC cycle evolves heading into 2026

Fundraising stays selective; discipline stays non-negotiable

On fundraising in 2026, our expectation is that the downward trend of the last 3 years will not reverse. Next year will be defined by uncertainty, making LPs, especially institutionals, careful with their money. However, what changes is not the existence of capital, but where it goes: it concentrates on solid teams and topics with clear market traction. From that angle, this environment is not something Shift4Good is worried about, if the topic is structural and the demand is real, funding still happens.

“The reduction in VC volumes won’t reverse, but good topics and good teams still get funded.” — Yann Marteil, Managing Partner at Shift4Good

A split market: value in non-consensus bets, premiums in ‘trendy’ areas

Pricing is generally more reasonable because the market is less speculative and discipline is back. Dry powder is still there from the “good years”, but it is treated as more precious and deployed more carefully, so the overall effect is a better return setup for investors across most themes.

But there is a split. On most topics, valuations are reasonable but outcomes can feel less certain because scaling is harder and markets are tougher. On trendy topics (AI being the obvious one) prices remain high because investor believe the probability of building something valuable is higher due to market dynamics. In practice, investors are choosing between two risk profiles: pay less for higher uncertainty, or pay up for perceived execution and category momentum.

“There’s less speculation now, and a return of expectations of performance on unit economics.” — Yann Marteil, Managing Partner at Shift4Good

Liquidity remains the pain point; secondaries grow in importance

Exits will remain complicated, especially in Europe: IPOs are scarce and M&A is selective. One positive signal is that private actors seem to be increasingly interested in innovation and experimentation, which may open more M&A paths. But they stay selective and cautious, so the exit environment remains challenging overall.

This combination is pushing the secondary market forward as a pragmatic release valve: when IPOs are weak and M&A is careful, secondaries become a more standard way to create liquidity.

“Liquidity is a structural problem, that’s why we see an increase in secondary-focused funds.” — Matthieu de Chanville, Managing Partner at Shift4Good

Taken together, these macro forces point in the same direction: transport and energy decarbonation are now driven by necessity. Sovereignty, AI, and sustainability are converging into a single set of constraints and opportunities that will shape which technologies, companies, and business models can scale — and, in turn, where capital concentrates as investors prioritise execution, resilience, and real-world adoption. And in a world with such constraints and uncertainty, the same filter applies on both sides of the table: VC and startup fundraising increasingly go only to solid teams, tackling real problems with concrete traction and clear market pull.

In the next parts of this series, we’ll look more closely at how these dynamics translate into investment trends in sustainable mobility, before diving into specific themes and technologies we see gaining traction across the sector.