How to Make Zero-Emission Trucks a Bankable Asset Class

The transition to zero-emission trucks (ZETs) has moved beyond technology demonstration and into a challenge of execution and scale. The technology is derisked and deployment is accelerating rapidly: electric truck sales in the EU have multiplied by five times compared to 2021, and the number of available electric models globally surged from 70 in 2020 to over 400 in 2024 (IEA global EV outlook). From an operating perspective, the economics are already moving in the right direction, with direct fuel costs for battery-electric heavy-duty trucks tracking about one-third lower in the EU and US, and nearly 70% lower in China compared to diesel (IEA EV outlook).

However, mainstream capital is still hesitating to treat ZETs as a standard asset class. The lag is structural: the assets have matured faster than the commercial and financing frameworks around them.

To move from fragmented, isolated pilots to large-scale deployment, the industry must fundamentally change how it structures freight arrangements and allocates risk. Here are the building blocks of a bankable, infrastructure-grade ZET asset class.

1. Shift from Transactional Contracts to Bankable Revenue Frameworks

Today, the system breaks down because the market is trying to finance a higher-capex, lower-opex asset using a diesel-era financing logic. Upfront purchase prices remain 2 to 3 times higher than diesel in major markets (IEA EV outlook). Meanwhile, freight contracts are typically short-term, price-driven, and disconnected from the long-term economics of the vehicle.

If freight contracts are too short or weakly committed, the portfolio remains too exposed to revenue risk. The solution is to establish bankable revenue frameworks. This requires large shippers and corporates to move toward longer-term commitments with indexed pricing that reflects the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) rather than just upfront capital expenditure.

2. Turn Perceived "Unknown" Risks into Structured, Priced Risks

A major reason lenders remain conservative is that critical factors—specifically battery degradation and charging infrastructure—are still treated as theoretical "black boxes". In reality, these are already manageable and transferable risks.

• Residual Value Risk: Battery performance and resale value are no longer unknowns. By leveraging battery diagnostics, state-of-health data, manufacturer warranties, and emerging secondary markets, residual value is becoming a firmly underwritable risk. Better repair, reuse, and recycling significantly improve TCO, offering up to $1.87 in savings per kilogram of cell produced through battery remanufacturing (Science direct).

• Infrastructure Risk: Underwriting a ZET fleet means underwriting infrastructure-coordination risk. This can be mitigated by structuring charging risk through uptime guarantees or infrastructure-as-a-service models, ensuring that vehicle deployment is matched with secure charging access on specific corridors.

3. Aggregation is the Ultimate Financial Intervention

The market does not need another isolated pilot; it needs collective proof points at a real scale. Aggregation is the single most powerful financial intervention to unlock scale over the next 24 months.

Aggregation creates the scale necessary to improve demand visibility, signaling certainty to both truck manufacturers and charge point operators. It fundamentally transforms the underlying economics: for example, increasing charger utilization from 5% to 30% can reduce the levelized infrastructure cost per kWh by approximately 80% (IEA global EV outlook).

A prime example of this is the Québec-Toronto electric truck corridor - a project led by Propulsion Québec. Announced in February 2026 and currently in its study phase, this project brings together all concerned public and private actors to align vehicle deployment, charging buildout, and ecosystem coordination simultaneously. Rather than trying to solve a single bottleneck, this kind of shared deployment naturally drives the standardization of contracts and documentation that institutional capital requires to trust the pool.

4. Startups as A Key to TCO and Ecosystem Integration

To truly optimize the economic equation of electric trucks, we must rely on agile innovation. Startups play a critical role in actively improving the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) for operators. Investing in these innovators is essential because they build the missing links that connect corporates, operators, and financiers within the larger ecosystem.

Some promising startups actively improving this ecosystem include:

• FRYTE Mobility — Automates charging reservations for electric trucks directly from route planning, making charging access predictable and reducing infrastructure risk for fleet operators.

• ElectroTempo — Predicts EV charging demand at sites and recommends infrastructure investments, helping fleets and utilities plan right-sized charging networks.

• 7Gen — Canada's EV-as-a-Service provider offering turnkey electric truck leasing bundled with charging and energy management, lowering the capital barrier for fleet electrification.

• IO-Dynamics — Optimizes fleet charging schedules around solar, dynamic tariffs, and grid constraints, reducing energy costs and improving operational predictability.

• Delta Charge — Builds battery storage and charging infrastructure for truck depots, enabling high-power fleet charging even where grid capacity is limited.

Financing the System, Not Just the Truck

Decarbonization in transport is not purely an impact story; it is an upgrade in operational economics, energy independence, and resilience. In 2024 alone, EV adoption displaced over 1.3 million barrels per day of oil demand, demonstrating that electrification shields operators from energy shocks and geopolitical volatility (IEA EV outlook).

At Shift4Good, we do not finance the trucks directly, we finance the system that makes them bankable. By investing in the vital ecosystem enablers—such as fleet management platforms, charging and energy orchestration, and battery analytics—we actively help remove technological and residual value risks so that massive debt and infrastructure capital can scale behind them.